In today’s still warm but cold real estate market, home buyers may face closed windows.
While sellers can still take advantage of low inventory, they should also be aware that inflation, rising interest rates, and the perception of overvalued homes may be taking some of the air out of the seller’s market.
There are also signs that homes are slowly but steadily staying on the market longer, presenting prospective sellers with a tough choice: do you bet that there is still enough demand in the local market and attract high-priced bids, or stay tight and wait for The Next Big Wave?
Warning signs for sellers
Elected leaders often joke that all politics is local. The same goes for real estate.
Cities and communities in high demand will always challenge broad national trends. Factors such as quality schools, livability, and cultural amenities will always help real estate sellers get the highest possible return.
But recent numbers are hard to ignore.
Redfin’s Home Buyer Demand Index, which measures requests for home visits and other home buying services by Redfin agents, rose 7 points in the last week of July, with mortgage applications rising for the first time in more than a month. But Redfin also said the improvements so far have not resulted in sales.
Pending sales fell in July and new listings fell 11 percent, the biggest drop since June 2020, the group said.
Fannie Mae recently released more pessimistic data, with its home-buying sentiment index falling to its lowest level since 2011. Fannie Mae said consumers are pessimistic about buying a home, and the percentage of consumers who think now is a good time to sell has also declined.
Still, now is a good time to sell
While many leading indicators may suggest that we are entering a pause, a few key factors make now a good time to sell – assuming you are ready to go public:
Demand: Homes may have been on the market longer, but demand is still relatively high compared to previous years and housing inventory remains low. Some areas in the US are still in bidding war zones – Utah, Washington and Florida continue to see appreciation of more than 20% – and sellers can expect to offer more than they ask.
All cash: If you live in a low inventory market and buyers outbid the property, sellers can expect to make a profit – sometimes literally. The cash sales market is hot at the moment, which is good news for sellers, as cash sales usually accelerate closings.
Rising Rates: While the Fed’s move to raise rates may be bad for sellers – higher rates mean higher monthly mortgages – the impending rate increase may push some buyers ahead of the Fed’s next expected move Fixed rate. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage is now about 5.35%, well above the level of a year ago when rates hovered above 3%.
Good Time to Wait
There are good reasons to sell. But there is plenty to hold on to.
Your own plan: What if your house sells fast? Do you have a plan to sell the proceeds? Do you need to start looking for your new space?
Your new mortgage: If you are selling because you need a bigger home, this jump may be impractical, especially if you are looking for a popular neighborhood or city. A new, larger property can eat up the profits from a new sale, but still require higher monthly mortgage payments.
Rate increases (again): The same Fed rate increases are obviously bad for sellers, as they can reduce the pool of potential buyers and make it harder for traditional mortgage buyers to pay for their property.
Get good advice
A great real estate transaction as a buyer or seller starts with a thorough self-audit. Why buy or sell, why now? Then give those answers to an experienced agent who knows your area.
A proxy is usually your best compass for understanding the needs or costs in your city or community.
